And the Winner is…
… well, who knows? There is always much speculation about how MLB standings will shape up come early October when the regular season comes to a close. Speculations are, usally simply that, speculations, until they are taken to the next level. Baseball Prospectus has developed a system to supposedly realistically simulate entire MLB seasons using the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) that they have developed. This system predicts each team’s wins and losses based on individual player performance compiled into a batting order, depth chart, and pitching rotation. If Baseball Prospectus has a way to realistically predict the outcome of an MLB season then it seems that those results should be somewhat consistent. However, Baseball Prospectus’ 2010 predictions for the AL East have changed at least 5 times in the last month. Originally, on January 28th PECOTA predicted that the Yankees would finish 3rd in the AL East with a 93-69 record and the Rays would win the devision with a record of 96-66. Just two days later on January 30th, following a grand total of ZERO roster moves between the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, Baseball Prospectus changed their projections to the Yankees and the Red Sox finishing in a first-place tie in the AL East at 93-69. Really PECOTA? Two days, 0 roster changes among the top three AL East teams and the Yankees ju
mp from missing the playoffs to being tied for the divisional lead? To me, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA is no more credible than a late-night infomercial featuring a faux Billy Mays. The subscription to the Baseball Prospectus in-depth fantasy subscription which allows access to the depth charts and other tools that are used to create the PECOTA projections costs, you guessed it!!.. just one easy payment of $19.95! But wait theres more!…
Unfortunately, this is not just part of the joke, there actually is more. Another whopping 2 days and ZERO AL East roster changes later, the PECOTA projections changed yet again. On Feb, 2nd the Baseball Prospectus standings had the Yankees finishing first in the AL East at 94-68; the Red Sox and Rays following with 92 and 90 wins respectively. Following this change, Baseball Prospectus gave Yankees fans a whole 12 days to revel in the glory as fantasy winners of the division. Sadly, after those 12 days Baseball Prospectus decided us Yankees fans had enough fun for the offseason and granted the fantasy rights to party to the Boston Red Sox on February 14th. This time PECOTA projected the Red Sox to win the division at 94-68 with the Yankees and the Rays rounding out the top three in the AL East with 92, and 91 wins respectively. That brings us to today.
Today, I checked the PECOTA standings again, just for fun, assuming that it couldn’t have possibly changed again. However, as I should know by now you should never assume anything with the PECOTA standings. While teams in the AL east have made no significant moves in the last 11 days and the Yankees have done nothing but add competition (in the form of Chan Ho Park and several non-roster invitees) the standings changed yet again. Today, Baseball Prospectus has the Red Sox finishing first at 94-68, the Rays second with 93 wins, and the Yankees 3rd with 89 wins. It looks like Swish is just as confused as I am about the recent change to the standings. As PECOTA standings are subject to change daily here is the link to check out the most recent standings.
The PECOTA pr
ojections are as fishy as can be, complete with a rank stench. PECOTA, while supposedly based upon accurate statistical simulation, seems to be full of subjective criteria. The only significant change in the MLB from the Yankees’ first place projection on February 2nd to the Yankees’ present-day 3rd place projection is the Detroit Tigers’ signing of Johnny Damon. With such a dramatic change in the number of wins from Feb 2nd to Feb 25th (5 less wins) the only reasonable explanation would be that PECOTA was still holding out hope that Johnny would return to the Yankees. Even that explanation cannot account for 5 more losses for a team like the Yankees. When there was talk of the Yankees pursuing Matt Holliday this offseason, statisticians and analysts suggested that adding Holliday would only be worth two more wins at the most to the Yankees because of their already stacked roster. If Holliday could only contribute 2 wins to the Yankees, then even using the excuse that PECOTA was holding out hope for a Damon return does not justify such a dramatic change. All in all it seems as though Baseball Prospectus’ “accurate simulation” is really just a crap-shoot after all.
With apparently one of the world’s most indecisive computers heading one of baseball’s most looked-to projection systems, we have decided to compile our 2010 predictions here at Bronx Bombers Beat. While we dont have any fancy computer programs to generate simulations, we do have a tool that is more powerful than the computer that generates PECOTA’s revolving-door standings. We, at Bronx Bombers Beat will attempt to do the unthinkable and use our brains, yes thats right, our human brains to predict the 2010 standings. If you are interested in seeing our standings please check back on Monday or Tuesday. In the meantime we would love to hear your thoughts on how the 2010 MLB season is shaping up
Photos courtesy of Zimbio.com
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