Cano Can Too
Joe Girardi has told the media that Robinson Cano will bat 5th in today’s spring training game in a lineup that is “pretty close” to what he expects the Opening Day lineup to look like. Yesterday, Brian Capozzi gave his take on Cano batting in the 5 hole for the 2010 Yankees. To sum up Brian’s thoughts; Cano can be effective in the 5th spot despite his struggles with runners in scoring position in 2009. As I read Brian’s post, I thought of Cano’s much-chronicled struggles with RISP and a question came to mind; was he really THAT bad?
Some statistics suggest that Cano was not only bad, but awful with RISP last season. Last season Cano hit a poor .207 with RISP, .259 with the bases juiced, .231 with a runner only on 2nd, and .222 with a runner only on third and with runners on the corners. From there his batting average with RISP only gets worse; .180 with runners on 1st and 2nd, and an abysmal .118 with runners on 2nd and 3rd. In addition, Cano’s average with RISP and 2 outs was .204. So with these stats, Girardi must be absolutely insane to bat Cano fifth, right? Not so quick…
In ’09 it is clear from pure batting average statistics that Cano had his struggles with RISP. But advanced statistics tell a different story. Last year Cano posted a line drive percentage (LD %) of 19.9 last year. The average LD% for the major leagues is right around 20% meaning that Cano hit line drives at the same rate as the rest of the league. In actuality, Cano’s average LD% translates into an above average number of line drives as he put the ball in play far more often than the league average as a result of below average strikeout and walks numbers.
While Cano hit an above average amount of line drives last year, his batting average on balls in play (BAbip) was only .210 with RISP. Without RISP Cano’s BAbip skyrocketed to .324. With Cano’s season BAbip above league average and LD% right around the league average it’s pretty clear that Cano’s struggles with RISP can only be attributed to one thing; bad luck. What it comes down to is that Cano couldn’t buy a hit with RISP last season. No matter how hard he hit the ball, somebody made a play on it.
Girardi has said that Cano hit the ball hard last year with RISP, but the advanced statistics really demonstrate Cano’s run-in with bad luck last year. If Cano continues to take the same approach with RISP in 2010 as he did in 2009, there will be nothing for Yankees fans to worry about. According to the law of averages Cano will have to have better success this year. Unless he broke a mirror last year, then Yankees fans can expect 6 more years of bad luck for Robby.
What do you think of Cano hitting in the 5th spot? Will he be able to be more productive this year with RISP?
Photo courtesy of Zimbio.com
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