Joba and Hughes – Part 2
After reading Brian’s post recommending Joba for the bullpen and Hughes for the rotation I got a bit frustrated. He says “the numbers aren’t a secret” and then doesn’t write about any numbers. Over and over again I hear people making this claim, that Joba is built to be a reliever, but they don’t supply any legitimate data. They have anecdotes about how Joba was “lights out” in his first season as a reliever. Well guess what, Hughes was lights out too. Lets take a look at the numbers:
Joba in relief: 60 IP, 10 ER, 1.50 ERA, .983 WHIP, 79 K, 20 BB
Hughes in relief: 51.1 IP, 8 ER, 1.40 ERA, .857 WHIP, 65 K, 13 BB
Looks pretty similar to me…in fact wouldn’t we rather have the lower walk rate in the bullpen? Walks are more detrimental when you’re up 2 or 3 in the ninth than at any other time in the game. So, now the ‘Joba relief, Hughes starter’ crowd continue that its about how Hughes has the make up to be a starter. Back to the numbers:
Joba as a starter: 221.2 IP, 103 ER, 4.18 ERA, 1.480 WHIP, 206 K, 101 BB
Hughes as a starter: 141.1 IP, 82 ER, 5.22 ERA, 1.436 WHIP, 112 K, 59 BB
Just barely, but I gotta say advantage Joba. Both pitchers started basically all the games they appeared in in the minors too. Looks like the only real difference between the two, starting or in relief, is Joba’s slightly higher walk rate and K rate. I think a lot of baseball fans see Joba pitch and immediately associate him with a fiery closer type in the vein of Dennis Eckersley or Rich “Goose” Gossage. This is a lazy reason to consider Hughes the better choice for starting. Plenty of starters have succeeded with fiery personalities as well (Randy Johnson, Carlos Zambrano, Kevin Brown). When you base your decision on the objective data, the two pitchers look nearly identical. Last year turned out pretty well, but does a world series winning team need to make a change solely for the sake of change? The point is, both Joba and Hughes are great pitchers with loads of potential. It’s easier to pitch in relief than to start, and in general a mediocre starter will make a much better reliever. I’m not sure who should pitch when or where, I’d be happy with either one as a 5th starter or a set up man. But I’m interested to hear why, other than appearance, there is so much more support in the Yankee community for Joba as a reliever than there is for Hughes.
Photo courtesy of Zimbio.com
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